Americans are retaining their vehicles longer than ever before, which is excellent news for repair shops but poor news for anyone anticipating a speedy phase-out of gas-powered vehicles.
The longer people use internal-combustion vehicles, the longer it will take to replace them with newer, more ecologically friendly technologies.
According to S&P Global Mobility, the average age of light cars on the road in the United States has reached an all-time high of 12.5 years, up three months from 2022.
They were 9.7 years old on average two decades ago.
New car sticker prices are rising, while existing vehicles are living longer, providing owners motivation to keep their present ride.
The days of your car becoming toast when the odometer reached 100,000 miles are long gone.
However, as vehicles age, they require routine maintenance and replacement parts.
According to S&P, the Auto Care Association, and MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers, aftermarket revenue is predicted to climb at least 5% in 2023 after increasing 8.5% in 2022.
According to Kelley Blue Book, the average new car transaction price in April was $48,275, up 3.7% over the previous year, owing in part to the appeal of more expensive trucks and SUVs.
“The prices are astronomical,” Todd Campau, S&P Global Mobility’s assistant director of aftermarket solutions, tells Axios.
If current owners don’t need a new automobile, they won’t buy one, according to Campau.
The consequences: The switch from gas to electric vehicles will take decades.
According to Campau, most gas-powered cars will likely remain on the road until at least 2050, if not longer.
The lifetime of electric vehicles is decreasing.
Their average age decreased from 3.7 years in 2022 to 3.6 years in 2023, owing in part to an increase in new acquisitions.
According to the figures, 6.6% of battery-powered EVs purchased between 2013 and 2022 have left the passenger fleet, compared to 5.2% of non-EVs — but Campau believes it’s too early to tell why.
EVs typically come with an 8-year, 100,000-mile warranty, but early evidence suggests they may survive longer, according to a review of battery data by Recurrent.
Electric vehicles are expected to last 15 to 20 years, according to automakers, although current EVs haven’t been around long enough to justify that claim.
While EVs are cleaner than their gas-powered predecessors, there is an environmental cost associated with mining the necessary materials and building new cars — so, all else being equal, it’s better for people to get as much life out of their old vehicles as possible before making the switch.
The United States’ preoccupation with pickup trucks and SUVs is driving passenger cars off the road.
According to S&P Global Mobility, there will be fewer than 100 million passenger automobiles on the road within the next 18 to 24 months, a level not seen since 1978.
By 2028, at least seven out of every ten vehicles on the road will be trucks, SUVs, or crossovers.
The basic line is that the future is electric, but the gas-powered past isn’t going away anytime soon.
