Despite hundreds of billions of dollars poured into artificial intelligence infrastructure, AI investment contributed “basically zero” to U.S. economic growth in 2025, according to Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius.
The finding challenges a widely circulated narrative that massive AI spending by companies such as Meta, Amazon, Google, OpenAI, and others is directly fueling U.S. GDP expansion.
The AI Investment Boom
Big Tech companies collectively spent billions in 2025 building data centers, acquiring advanced chips, and scaling AI infrastructure. That figure is expected to reach nearly $700 billion in 2026 as hyperscalers accelerate deployment of next-generation AI systems.
Some policymakers and economists previously argued that AI-related spending significantly boosted economic growth. Federal Reserve researchers estimated AI-related investments accounted for 39% of GDP growth in Q3 2025, while Harvard economist Jason Furman noted that information processing equipment and software investments represented 92% of GDP growth in the first half of the year.
But Goldman Sachs now disputes that interpretation.
Why the GDP Impact Is Limited
According to Hatzius, one major factor is imports.
Much of the hardware powering AI — including advanced chips and semiconductor equipment — is manufactured outside the United States. As a result, while U.S. companies are spending aggressively, a significant portion of that spending contributes to GDP growth in countries like Taiwan and South Korea rather than the U.S.
“A lot of the AI investment that we’re seeing in the U.S. adds to Taiwanese GDP and Korean GDP, but not really that much to U.S. GDP,” Hatzius said.
In addition, economists note there is currently no reliable framework to accurately measure how AI usage translates into productivity gains across businesses.
Productivity Still Unclear
A recent survey of nearly 6,000 executives across the U.S., Europe, and Australia found that although 70% of firms are actively using AI, around 80% reported no measurable impact on employment or productivity.
This suggests that while AI adoption is accelerating, its macroeconomic productivity dividend has yet to materialize at scale.
The Bigger Question
The debate raises a fundamental issue for 2026:
Are AI investments driving real economic output — or primarily inflating capital expenditure cycles and equity valuations?
With infrastructure spending continuing to surge, the gap between AI enthusiasm and measurable economic impact is becoming a central question for investors, policymakers, and enterprise leaders alike.
Source: Gizmodo
