By the middle of last year, governments all over the world had announced the building of 476 gigatonnes of new coal power plants. Given how much greenhouse gas coal emits, meeting the world’s climate targets would be difficult. According to one analysis, half of the projects will be canceled.
Coal is the most polluting fossil fuel, accounting for 0.3°C of the 1°C increase in global average temperatures. As a result, it is the single most significant contributor of temperature rise.
Over 2,400 coal-fired power plants are presently operational around the world, all of which need be shut down by 2040 if we are to avoid temperatures rising by more than 1.5°C.
MCC researchers examined official declarations from countries addressing coal power, which are maintained by the US information agency Global Energy Monitor. They discovered that considerably fewer coal power stations will be built in the coming years than projected for a variety of reasons.
The researchers collaborated with 29 qualified specialists from ten countries that account for 90% of new coal power plants under construction or planned: Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia, Laos, Mongolia, Pakistan, Turkey, Vietnam, and Zimbabwe. The researchers consulted these specialists for their knowledge of their respective countries.
The greatest project cancellations are projected in Bangladesh and Mongolia, with the fewest in China – which comes as no surprise. According to a survey published earlier this year, China sanctioned the most new coal-fired power facilities since 2015. This amounted to 106GW, 50GW of which is already under development.
The researchers identified many factors for countries’ predicted changes in coal policy. Along with technical and economic elements, the political economy of coal, such as regional jobs and taxes, had a significant impact. Renewable energy, particularly solar and wind, is becoming increasingly affordable, making coal an unwise investment.
In total, the analysis found that around 215GW of new coal-fired power plant capacity will be added in the ten nations studied. “One option for dealing with newly constructed plants would be to limit their lifespan to 15 years.” If that succeeds, the 1.5-degree limit remains well within reach,” study lead author Lorenzo Montrone said in a statement.
Countries promised to phase down unabated coal power during the COP27 climate summit in Egypt last year, but no agreement to go beyond coal was reached. COP28, the next climate meeting, will be held in Saudi Arabia in December. Last Monday, the summit’s president, Sultan Al Jaber, stated that fossil fuels continue to play a part in the climate catastrophe, which does not augur well for our climate aspirations.
In China, the country’s renewable energy boom is phenomenal, but renewable energy doesn’t do much when so much of your energy still comes from coal. If we are to actually halt climate change, China (and everyone else) must abandon this dreadful source of energy.
