Artificial intelligence investment played a meaningful role in the U.S. economy in 2025, but it was not the primary engine of growth, according to recent economic research.
While AI-related capital spending reshaped market valuations and fueled major investments in data centers and software, consumer spending remained the dominant contributor to U.S. GDP growth throughout the year.
Recent discussions, assumptions about AI being the most of important aspect of economic growth have become common.
Consumer spending remained the main growth driver
A January report from MRB Partners U.S. economic strategist Prajakta Bhide found that consumption was the largest contributor to U.S. GDP growth in 2025, consistent with typical expansionary periods.
AI-related capital expenditures ranked second, challenging the popular narrative that AI investment alone prevented a broader economic slowdown.
“AI is an important part of the growth story, but it’s not the only part,” Bhide said, noting that without AI spending, GDP growth would still have remained positive due to resilient consumer demand.
AI’s economic impact was smaller after import adjustments
According to the analysis, AI-related investment initially appeared to contribute nearly 0.9 percentage points to real GDP growth between the first and third quarters of 2025.
However, once imports of AI-related hardware — including computers, semiconductors, and telecom equipment — were factored in, the net contribution fell to approximately 0.4–0.5 percentage points, or roughly 20%–25% of real GDP growth over the same period.
Because a significant share of AI hardware is imported, its direct impact on domestic GDP was more limited than headline investment figures suggest.
Software and computing outweighed data center investments
Although large-scale data center projects attracted significant attention, Bhide noted that software and computer investments accounted for a greater share of AI’s contribution to GDP growth.
This distinction highlights that AI’s economic influence extended beyond infrastructure spending, with productivity-related investments playing a more central role.
Growth remained resilient despite mixed signals
U.S. GDP growth showed volatility throughout 2025, with strong second- and third-quarter performance offset by a contraction early in the year.
Economic expansion was supported by:
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Continued consumer spending
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AI-related investment
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Stabilizing labor market conditions
Looking ahead, Bhide expects consumption to remain resilient in 2026, supported by fiscal measures and easing monetary conditions, even as income growth moderates.
Why this matters for CIOs
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AI hype vs. reality: Economic impact may be meaningful but not singular, reinforcing the need for balanced investment narratives.
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Capital allocation discipline: CIOs should evaluate AI investments alongside broader demand drivers, not in isolation.
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Strategic planning: Overstating AI’s macroeconomic role can distort technology roadmaps and board-level expectations.
This data strengths the importance of grounding AI investment decisions in broader economic fundamentals rather than market narratives alone.
Source: CNBC
